Friday, October 23, 2009

We don't need no stinking spots...

Interesting piece by Alex Beam in today's Globe. He went (among other places) to a Floon event:

I complained to Yoon that while waiting, I had to suffer through three Steve Pagliuca “just an ordinary millionaire’’ ads and two Tom Menino friend-to-all-the-animals commercials. Where’s your stuff, I asked? “We’re not going to be on the air,’’ he lamented. “We’re going to do mail. The strategic advice we got said don’t compete in a medium that you can’t dominate, and we can’t dominate Menino on TV.’’

Few things are more annoying to the Dog than when he's so startled that coffee is forced up his sinuses.  Here for all you folks out there are rules for (comparatively) underfunded campaigns:
  • If you don't have as much media money as your opponent, but you have enough to run TV spots, be creative: go for cable placement, use the sheer creativity of the spots to earn free media (e.g. the Tim for Treasurer spots that Cahill used in '06), make your relative poverty part of your message. If you're slick enough, use it as part of your fundraising message.
  • Use your field operation as a means of getting free media: endorsements are nice; endorsements in front of huge cheering crowds are better. The purpose of field is to supply and place the crowd.
  • Go to radio. Get booked on whatever talk show will tolerate your presence (making sure to do debate prep for those hosts less than well-disposed to your candidacy).  This does not include shows hosted by implacable enemies; however a candidate that holds his own in debating a radio host will tend to get respect in the Boston media market. Get your folks to slice and dice the Boston radio market. Place radio spots.
  • Mix and match all the above with print ads in neighborhood newspapers.  They're more cost-effective than the dailies and your cheering crowds (see above) look better in a half-page ad than in a palm card insert.
  • Use direct mail (targeted whenever possible) to reinforce the above. Vary the mix and repeat as necesary, as conditions allow; and remember:
Mail don't do shit in a vacuum.  (Repeat)

Most mail pieces are circular-filed unread by their recipients.  The purpose of mail is to reinforce a dynamic. In a post-literate society it will not change a preexisting political condition.

Regarding that last point:  Republicans traditionally do well with direct mail, but this is because (thanks to years of refining their lists), Repubs are preaching to the converted, and reinforcing their targets' pre-existing biases.

All pure mail does is kill trees, and that looses you the greenie component of the goo-goo vote.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The Globe and the Bay State Banner Complement Each Other

One reasons that reporters for the dailies should read the neighborhood and community papers is that the latter often catch nuances that bigfoot reporters miss.

There was nothing inaccurate about the Globe's coverage of Monday's endorsement of Floon by forty black clergy, but the endorsement, was put in better context by the Bay State Banner:

Last week, black pastors active in the Black Ministerial Alliance and Ten Point Coalition endorsed Menino.
Menino has enjoyed high favorability in Boston’s black community, securing more than 60 percent of the vote in predominantly black wards and precincts in this year’s preliminary election.
Having said that, I give the Globe credit for covering the anti-Menino no-confidence vote given by Massachusetts Association of Minority Law Enforcement Officers as a separate article, and by noting that the unanimous no-confidence vote of sixty members did not necessarily reflect the feelings of 300+ members. Nevertheless, the Banner Article caught the political nuance involved:


While the officers did not endorse Menino’s rival in the mayoral race, City Councilor Michael Flaherty, their announcement Monday morning followed a press conference where a group of black ministers joined community activists from the Latino, Asian and Cape Verdean communities to publicly endorse the Flaherty-Yoon campaign Monday.
Note the absence of "community activists from the black community" in the Banner's reporting of the Floon endorsement. What happened, and what the Banner reported, was an incidence of clergy and activists speaking their personal and institutional preferences, not speaking for any geographic or demographic community.

What would be good local political reporting is an analysis of the differing agendae among clergy, activists, and the grassroots as reflected by differing political choices and the reasons thereof...

Monday, October 19, 2009

Floon: Float Like a Butterfly, Sink Like a Rock, Redux

The Floon collapse moves apace. As I originally said here, and explained here, the Flaherty-Yoon aliance was never more than a joint venture between two vanity candidates who had no chance of winning.

Now the Globe has released a poll showing the Mayor with a 52% - 32% lead over Flaherty, with the following crosstabs by ethnicity:

                              Menino   Flaherty    Other   Undecided
City of Boston LV      52%       32%           3%       13%
White                       47%       38%           2%       14%
African American      63%       23%           6%         9%
Hispanic                   70%       14%           3%       12%
Other                       40%        40%           0%       21%

If we compare apples-to-apples using May 10 data from the same pollster, we get:

Apples-to-Apples            Menino  Flaherty     Other     Undecided

City of Boston LV May      61%      23%          3%           14%
                       October   52%      32%          3%           13%

Apples-to-Apples
White                   May     56%      29%          1%           14%
                       October    47%      38%          2%           14%

Apples-to-Apples
AfricanAmerican May        69%      15%          3%           13%
                     October       63%      23%          6%             9%

Apples-to-Apples
Hispanic              May         74%     13%          2%           11%
                      October        70%     14%          3%           12%

Apples-to-Apples
Other                  May         59%        3%        22%          16%
                     October         40%       40%         0%           21%

The Mayors demographic support base remains within black and Latino communities; despite the pounding Menino has taken from the media, Latino and black slippage was minimal in the context of the primary-to-general dynamic to date.

The slippage consists almost entirely of lost white and Asian support; and forty percent of a total citywide population totalling less than 9% (lumping all nonwhites, nonblacks, and non-Latinos together as "other") is nowhere near a winning margin. Within the poll's margin of error, this indicates little change fron September 22.

Considering the numbers from the Preliminary, where the Menino, Flaherty, and Yoon percentages were 50.52%, 23.95%, and 21.16%  (and considering the 4.2% McCrea vote), an effective anti-Menino coalition would have resulted in a dead heat, reflecting the 49.23% non-Menino preliminary vote. That didn't happen.

The 4.4% margin of the UNH/Globe poll shows no real change in Menino's support since the preliminary, which leads me to conclude that most of the electoral damage to the Mayor occurred in the summer phase of the election cycle; was media-driven; and was not exploited by the Flaherty campaign at the neighborhood level.  There was, in fact, an anti-Menino undercurrent that a competent field operation could have used to boost Flaherty's support, but addressing this was sacrificed in favor of a totally symbolic Floon effort, whose whole was less than the sum of its parts.

Relative to the money spent collectively by the Flaherty and Yoon campaigns, the result was a half-assed media campaign, not a municipal insurgency; and as such, a cautionary example of the self-inflicted limits such campaigns  face against operatives on the ground.

Unfortunately, the UNH sampling model does not correspond with neighborhood cultures, but I think that an informed prediction remains that (even with Yoon) Flaherty is walled into South Boston and Neponset, with insufficient Floon-derived Back Bay and Jamaica Plain numbers to materially affect Menino's current base.

The Dog is currently indulging himself in an "I told you so" that approaches an unseemly level of gloating

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Boston Political Reporting: Oxymoron or Urban Legend?

In order to thumbnail Boston's political reporting (more accurately the competent lack thereof), we need to look at the media business as a whole.


So please bear with me as the Dog goes didactic on y'all:

A continuing source of frustration to me is the structural disconnect between the media and day-to-day politics. It's nothing new; in fact, journalists and commentators such as William Greider, E.J. Dionne, and Kevin Phillips analysed the dynamic years ago.

American politics (and the journalists that report on it entered a period of structural cognitive dissonance forty years ago, from which they have yet to leave. It's inaccurate to look at this in terms of Left versus Right politics, since the New Left was neither new, nor a Left, and Reagan was not a conservative.

American elite culture became so disconnected from the broad base of society that politics, public policy, and civic culture, that many Americans presumed malicious intent to explain what was in fact structural collapse. This accrued to the benefit of the Republican Party; in its most sophisticated form, it accrued to the benefit of Richard Nixon, who realized that:

(a) the Left was useful as an outreach mechanism;

(b) that the Left as constituted had no politically significant constituency (there was no "Youth Movement", the biggest college organization in 1967 was the College Republicans, and white baby boomers have been a primarily Republican constituency since 1968);

(c) the New Politics movement within the Democratic Party, as symbolized by Eugene McCarthy was a Tory-Right dynamic, with its social culture derived primarily from the class bigotry of the 1950s Adlai Stevenson campaigns. The perfect metaphor for the period was McCarthy's 1980 endorsement of Ronald Reagan. What occurred (and is still occurring) is the triumph and commercial exploitation of class bigotry in American life.

While this approach was invented and refined by the Right, it's been an integral political tactic across the political spectrum, because small turnouts make for less heavy lifting by campaigns; and disengaged electorates are revenue enhancement mechanisms for the media side of the business.  Democrats have traditionally depended more on media than field (just as Democrats depend more on big contributions than Republicans), so it would be hypocritical to cast stones at elephants.

The decline in reporting paralleled the civic collapse, as print reporting became a profession, rather than a trade. Preconceived opinions became the basis of newsgathering in the absence of structural connections to the community. The myth of Watergate became the foundation for media amour propre, despite the fact that the Washington Post reporting had nothing to do with Nixon's resignation.

Television news became so consultant driven that infotainment and marketing (to be redundant) replaced journalistic values; and the same dynamic infected the print media, accelerating as competent reporters aged out of the business.

Corporate concentration within the media accelerated the process, but did not cause it; the problem is more the structural corruption of journalistic culture than the ownership thereof.

Put simply, the Sixties never ended.

In the modern world of politics, journalists exist primarily as conduits, so separate from reality that they do not know what questions to ask, much less whom to ask them. If pointed in the right direction, the media has sufficient resources to cover an issue in depth; but real-time political reporting at the local and State level is practically nonexistent.

Thus political players - and the term covers more than political professionals - have an inbred contempt for the media, and folks at the grassroots misconstrue arrogance and ignorance for conspiratorial malfeasance. The "corporate media'" and "liberal media" accusations from Left and Right are simply misinformed dogma resulting from the same thing.

A classic case in point is how the Boston Globe's coverage of Senator Dianne Wilkerson's tax problems in 1998 saved her seat. When the news first broke, community sentiment in Boston's black community was overwhelmingly negative until the Globe printed an op-ed by the Reverend Eugene Rivers condemning the Senator and calling for her resignation.

This ignored two dynamics hard-wired into Boston's black civic culture: most people hate Gene Rivers; and most people hate the Globe. In particular, the more prominent black Christian ministers and the Nation of Islam hated Rivers more than they hated each other. The result was a packed rally at the Charles Street AME Church, in support of a martyr of white racism, as symbolised by the genocidal cultural imperialists of Morrissey Boulevard.

Wilkerson was overwhelmingly re-elected.

Wilkerson's eventual defeat in 2008 actually reinforces the point.  Wilkerson was the Vice-Chair of the Senate Committee on Redistricting.  In that capacity, she redistricted more than forty per cent of the black population out of her District, while absorbing hostile populations in Back Bay and Jamaica Plain.  Her excuse that she was creating a "second District of Color" was demographically fraudulent, based as it was on raw numbers, not voting-age populations.  There was no media research of Wilkerson's premise, despite the fact that the data was easily available by Voter Tabulation District from the Census Bureau.

(In a related instance, the purjury conviction of then House Speaker Thomas Finneran was due, not to racism, but to his arrogance in protecting the electoral bases of incumbent representatives.  Had he been open about his motives, he would still be in office.)

Nothing has changed since then; hostility to the Globe is still a mainstay of black community politics. This is reinforced by the fact that there is no evidence of political literacy on the part of either of the Globe's black political columnists.

In a city such as Boston, where most of the politically germaine information exists in hardcopy minila files, Globe reporters are notorious for their belief that if it's not online, it doesn't exist. Their condescending behavior to low-level governmental staffers robs them of access to the only sources who really know what's going on. Their absence at neighborhood meetings makes them ignorant of neighborhood issues. Most importantly, their gullibility makes Globe reporters easy to spin.

The Boston Herald is by far the better of the two daily papers in terms of its political coverage, making up in sweat equity what it lacks in resources. The problems are that the comparitive poverty of the paper makes it subject to spin, and the vacuum in competent political reporting from the Herald's competators creates a culture of self-indulgence among some of its staff, particularly Howie Carr whose sources are the broadest in local journalism, but whose work too often slides into infantile ax-grinding.

The "alternative weekly" Boston Phoenix is essentially a corporate bohemian paper, with good media coverage, but nothing beyond recycled conventional wisdom and bad spin in its news.

The best journalism comes from the community and neighborhood newspapers, which, despite a tendency to boosterism, provide visibility to local political issues. As a rule of thumb: if you're working a local campaign in Boston, go to the Newspaper room of the Boston Public Library and read the local papers while ignoring the Globe. Let your campaign flacks work the dailies.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Daily Kos Weekly State of the Nation Poll

Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.

Daily Kos Weekly State of the Nation Poll

Research 2000, MoE 2%, Oct 12, 2009 - Oct 15, 2009
Previous


BARACK OBAMA


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION
ALL
55
37
8
Men
45
47
8
Women
65
27
8
Dem
89
5
6
Rep
5
93
2
Ind
54
34
12
Other
50
36
14
Non Vote
60
28
12
White
46
46
8
Black
88
4
8
Latino
67
26
7
Oth/Ref
67
25
8
18-29
79
14
7
30-44
43
47
10
45-59
63
29
8
60+
41
53
6
NE
82
7
11
South
27
68
5
MW
62
30
8
West
59
32
9
Rest of USA
67
24
9

NANCY PELOSI


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION
ALL
37
55
8
Men
23
68
9
Women
51
42
7
Dem
79
11
10
Rep
4
94
2
Ind
24
70
6
Other
22
73
5
Non Vote
27
57
16
White
35
63
2
Black
51
24
25
Latino
33
47
20
Oth/Ref
34
46
20
18-29
47
45
8
30-44
26
59
15
45-59
44
54
2
60+
36
59
5
NE
56
36
8
South
21
74
5
MW
40
51
9
West
37
52
11

HARRY REID


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION
ALL
33
57
10
Men
26
67
7
Women
40
47
13
Dem
65
24
11
Rep
4
92
4
Ind
27
66
6
Other
19
67
14
Non Vote
26
54
20
White
31
64
5
Black
42
34
24
Latino
34
46
20
Oth/Ref
35
44
21
18-29
40
45
15
30-44
31
62
7
45-59
33
57
10
60+
30
60
10
NE
45
41
14
South
26
68
6
MW
34
57
9
West
30
57
13

MITCH MCCONNELL


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION
ALL
17
64
19
Men
26
54
20
Women
8
74
18
Dem
4
93
3
Rep
54
9
37
Ind
8
73
19
Other
16
57
27
Non Vote
7
71
22
White
23
61
16
Black
2
77
21
Latino
4
66
30
Oth/Ref
4
68
28
18-29
7
78
15
30-44
25
56
19
45-59
13
70
17
60+
19
56
25
NE
6
82
12
South
37
37
26
MW
9
73
18
West
11
72
17

JOHN BOEHNER


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION
ALL
13
62
25
Men
19
54
27
Women
7
70
23
Dem
4
92
4
Rep
43
10
47
Ind
5
69
26
Other
6
56
38
Non Vote
4
66
30
White
17
56
27
Black
3
84
13
Latino
5
69
26
Oth/Ref
3
71
26
18-29
5
75
20
30-44
20
53
27
45-59
7
68
25
60+
17
56
27
NE
5
81
14
South
26
34
40
MW
8
72
20
West
9
70
21

CONGRESSIONAL DEMOCRATS


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION

CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION

DEMOCRATIC PARTY


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION
ALL
41
51
8
Men
32
60
8
Women
50
42
8
Dem
71
22
7
Rep
5
93
2
Ind
37
55
8
Other
33
58
9
Non Vote
41
42
17
White
32
62
6
Black
74
15
11
Latino
52
33
15
Oth/Ref
53
31
16
18-29
57
34
9
30-44
27
62
11
45-59
48
47
5
60+
39
54
7
NE
62
26
12
South
21
72
7
MW
44
48
8
West
44
50
6

REPUBLICAN PARTY


FAV
UNFAV
NO OPINION
ALL
21
67
12
Men
30
61
9
Women
12
73
15
Dem
3
92
5
Rep
73
9
18
Ind
10
77
13
Other
11
74
15
Non Vote
7
78
15
White
28
59
13
Black
3
92
5
Latino
4
81
15
Oth/Ref
4
83
13
18-29
6
87
7
30-44
35
51
14
45-59
17
72
11
60+
17
68
15
NE
6
87
7
South
48
37
15
MW
10
78
12
West
12
75
13

Direction

QUESTION: Do you feel the country overall is heading in the right direction or wrong direction?

RIGHT
WRONG
NOT SURE
All
40
56
4
Men
36
60
4
Women
44
52
4
Dem
61
34
5
Rep
5
93
2
Ind
42
53
5
Other
36
55
9
Non Vote
44
53
3
White
39
58
3
Black
44
49
7
Latino
41
54
5
Oth/Ref
42
49
9
18-29
46
51
3
30-44
32
60
8
45-59
45
53
2
60+
40
59
1
NE
47
47
6
South
31
65
4
MW
44
53
3
West
41
56
3

Generic Congressional Ballot

QUESTION: Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress in 2010?

DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
NOT SURE
All
35
29
36
Men
28
39
33
Women
42
19
39
Dem
79
4
17
Rep
4
89
7
Ind
19
17
64
Other
18
27
55
Non Vote
24
15
61
White
26
35
39
Black
65
5
30
Latino
49
23
28
Oth/Ref
51
23
26
18-29
52
7
41
30-44
25
41
34
45-59
39
25
36
60+
30
35
35
NE
51
8
41
South
21
47
32
MW
37
26
37
West
36
28
36

Demographics

Men
1152
48%
Women
1248
52%
Dem
744
31%
Rep
527
22%
Ind
600
25%
Other
119
5%
Non Vote
410
17%
White
1703
71%
Black
337
14%
Latino
286
12%
Oth/Ref
74
3%
18-29
433
18%
30-44
791
33%
45-59
695
29%
60+
481
20%
NE
505
21%
South
718
30%
MW
647
27%
West
530
22%

Methodology

A total of 2400 adults nationally were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each state in the country in order to reflect the adult population nationally.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 2% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire adult population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.
GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
Northeast:
DC, ME, VT, NY, MD, PA, CT, DE, MA, NH, RI, WV, NJ
South:
FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR, TX
Midwest:
IL, MN, MI, OH, WI, IA, MO, KS, IN, ND, SD, OK, NE
West:
NM, CA, OR, WA, AK, HI, MT, ID, UT, NV, AZ, WY, CO
SCRIPT:
For favor

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Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The Floon Saga, Pt. 3: Float Like a Butterfly, Sink Like a Rock

Ray Flynn and Mel King just endorsed Floon, to the sounds of chirping crickets. What we have here is a serious case of cognitive dissonance on the part of two figures from the political past, who (however well-intended) totally misread the present. Given all the fatuous rhetoric and media masterbation, presuming a "New Boston" alliance against the Mayor this presents a level of political humor that I haven't experienced in years.

Of course, as a totally uncivilized human being, The Dog loves watching the political masochism involved in folks who totally misunderstand the obvious.

What seems probable at this point are two things: that the various black, Latino, white, and Asian communities in the City will be Mayor Menino's insurance in getting an unprecedented fifth term; and that the Yoon-Flaherty partnership augments the Mayor's outreach mechanism.

Enclosed are links to spreadsheets cross-referencing the Preliminary results with the VTD Census Information, listing every precinct by black, white, Latino, and Asian residents. The sort is in decreasing order, with the highest percentages at the top.

What becomes evident is that, from a field perspective, the Yoon campaign was a vanity candidacy that, repelled the very people it presumed to attract. In the context of the final election, it tightens the noose around Flaherty.

Barring an indictment of the Mayor or a high-level staffer it's pretty much over.

Hence, given all the other activity around the Special Senate Primary, and the early prep work around the 2010 Governor's race, this is a perfect case study on how the operating premises of Democratic activists often croak their candidates. It is also a good example of how two well-funded Astroturf campaigns seal themselves into limited bases, and combine to isolate themselves through sheer ineptitude. The biggest irony is that the Floon effort could have won.

From a field perspective, the Menino operation reached its high-water mark in 1996 during the Boston School Committee Referendum, since then any credible opponent could have put an effective political opposition together, given the resources and one-to-two year time frame.

The simple fact is that Boston is collapsing, has been for years, and hasn't touched botton yet.  Case in point: the collapse of Downtown Crossing and the empty storeforonts in Back Bay.

Anti-Menino message could have been summed up under the working - and accurate - premise that Menino's operation was so self-absorbed, ruthless, petty, and authoritarian that the Mayor turned a first-class small city into a fifth-rate suburb.  Field organizing could have been based upon the tangible interests of those communities disrupted and displaced by the corporate triumphalism of the past sixteen years.

Unfortunately, what the electorate got as an alternative was two vanity candidates with delusions of adequacy.

What happened instead was a replay of the 1983 Mayors race with Flaherty and Yoon playing the roles of Ray Flynn and Mel King respectively.  It's true that neither of the Floon components has a work ethic, but that's not germaine to the analysis. The flaws in the Floon premise are:

The activist community is totally separate from and unaccountable to, the grassroots in black and Latino communities.

White working-class neighborhoods in Boston no longer exist as cohesive political forces.  West Roxbury is an exception as a culturally blue-collar neighborhood*, but being politically astute, Ward 20 makes its own analyses and backs winners.

The organized Left is in the Mayor's pocket, either through its organizations (e.g. SEIU, UNITE-HERE), or its corporate funders (e.g. The Boston Foundation).  The organized left in Boston is actually a subset of the corporate Right, but that's grist for another post.

Furthermore, the O'Neill Rule remains in effect: all politics are still local. Flaherty, as the original heir apparent to the Mayor spent most of his pre-insurgency career residing in Menino's colon; and Yoon would never be caught dead doing constituent service.

So, a demographic analysis shows a Flaherty base limited to Charlestown and Greater Southie (Wards 6,7, and the Neponset section of Ward 16), and he lost one of the three Neponset precincts. (Neponset consists of Ward 16, precincts 5, 7, and 10. Flaherty took precincts 7 and 10; Menino took precinct 5.)

In the same sense, the Yoon base was limited to the twinkie sections of Jamaica Plain, and three black-majority within Ward 11. He took no majority-Latino precincts, and no precinct with any discernible Asian population.  Jamaica Plain really deserves a case study of its own, give the histories of the Dominican community's successful (and ongoing) battles against the various white-run community development organizations that infest the neighborhood.

Finally the "New Boston" premise simply doesn't hold together. There is little enough shared political interest between and among the various black, Latino, and Asian communities; to presume a working alliance with out-of-town Yuppies and students is pure fantasy, with no demographic, political, or historic basis in fact (to put it less obscenely than I'd normally prefer).

Floon's death predates the Preliminary, but the corpse has finally stopped quivering.   To the sound of chirping crickets.
 
 
* Yes, I know West Roxbury (Ward 20 to all you players out there) is affluent, with a large professional population.  I'm defining class by civic culture and civic values. If you don't get my point, Google Max Weber.